Hello everyone, this is MrJozza here and welcome
back to my Bitcoin lookahead series. Thank
you very much to CollinCrypto for the $25 donation.
I have spent your donation on beer which helps
keep the charting to the highest quality so
For those of you who haven’t looked at a chart
in the past 10 days, the price grown to $593
and consolidating at $580s, a full $140 higher
or 25%. Now I won’t say I saw this coming
as I figured we would see more consolidation
with the tightening bands, but once we expanded
after breaking the secondary bearish trend
it quickly retested the highs of the triangle
and just mooned.
Now things are starting to get interesting.
It seems every dip is being bought and we’ve
increased in price a good 30% in the last
week so we’re going to move to a bubble-watch
fashion. Like several times before in Bitcoin,
the price has quickly doubled after or in
anticipation for a major fundemental change.
In 2012, this was the previous halvening.
In 2013, the collapse of silk road ergo the
somewhat legitimazation of Bitcoin and the
Chinese market entering. A lot of the volume
was the MTGOX willy bot purchasing however
and as that was the largest exchange, there
is a lot of speculation that this was the
cause for the bubble reaching the 4-digit
highs that it did. So we will be using the
bubble deflation side for our resistance levels
on the way up.
Here we are at the second halvening in 2015,
and we have the right ingrediants for another
speculator bubble. Episode # 9 mentioned Chinese
market crisis and the upcoming halvening.
I’d like to add an additional factor. Russian
government recently suggested adopting a state
controlled cryptocurrency and (the report
heavily suggests) outlawing use of Bitcoin.
The incentive of this seems to be total money
management, making it significantly more difficult
to hide money because it’s on a ledger and
reducing money laundering or other illegal
activity. Obviously there was a surge of interest
in literally every other cryptocurrency in
the state. However, with the large premium
we have seen in China – this appears to
largely be a move from their end, along with
a technical analysis break upwards.
Should we see further bullish action, there
are 3 zones of resistance I’ve identified
from our time here back in 2014. Apart from
$600, which is round number resistance, I’m
looking at resistance at $613, $639 and, most
significantly, $664. The range from $650 to
$665 will likely be the toughtest nut to crack
on the upside. I’ve chosen these areas due
to several tags across a high timeframe. Bare
in mind that this chart spans 4 months. Now,
as I mentioned on twitter: I may not be publishing
my trades for a while as I will only be selling
for strict risk management and not looking
to trade minor waves as with the halvening
only 33 days away, we can and have already
seen speculative buying.There is also some
mainstream media attention after the $500
break, I would expect more should we break
up through $600.
For roughly the last week, we have been consolidating
above the $570 support level, with several
retests of that previous high seen on May
29th. Visible on the 4h Bollinger bands is
the contraction then rapid expansation after
breaking above the $550 resistance.
Now, I would of said that this indicates a
$570 retest but we’ve already passed and currently
contracting again at $580. With a looming
OBV bearish break and a red Heiken ashi candle,
this suggests we may see some retracement.
Possibly to $530-550 support for a retest.
But there is a whole lot of support at that
level. During any bubble however, the only
selling you want to be doing is managing your
own risk so you don’t get slapped when the
bubble eventually collapses. How aggressive
you want to be with this risk management is
up to you.
Thank you very much for watching and cheers.